columbia basin climate columbia basin climate

The HD method was also selected as the basis for the main summary products derived for each river location (see description below), primarily because it was capable of providing good performance over the complete range of products produced by the CBCCSP (Hamlet et al., 2010a). In this case only modified flows (2000-level modified flows obtained from the BPA (Crook, Citation1993)) were used to train the bias-correction procedure, even if naturalized flows were also available. The changes in the importance of snow in some areas of the United States are particularly striking. Note that unlike the raw VIC flux files discussed above (Table 2), imperial units are used for these products on the study website (cubic feet per second, inches, degrees Fahrenheit). For the CD and HD downscaling methods, which construct a 91-year time series for both historical and future time periods, three future time periods were selected: 2020s (20102039), 2040s (20302059), and 2080s (20702099). (For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). The CBCCSP was developed to address these diverse needs. At the other extreme, for those without any hydrologic modelling or post-processing capability the study provides a wide range of hydrologic products that can be used without any expertise in the preceding steps. The macroscale hydrologic model used in the CBCCSP is the VIC model (Cherkauer & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, & Burges, Citation1994) implemented at 1/16 degree resolution. The sweeping statements in the 2007 IPCC AR4 (Solomon et al., Citation2007) regarding the scientific consensus on observed warming (unequivocal) and the direct human role in the alteration of the climate system (90% confidence) made it clear to many management professionals that the waiting game for climate change planning was nearing an end. Atmosphere Ocean 51. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. A comprehensive website was to be developed to serve all the data produced by the study, at no cost, to the general public, management professionals agency staff members, scientific researchers, private sector consultants, etc. Columbia River | Location, Length, History, & Facts | Britannica The city's average temperature is 57 F (14 C). Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. Hamlet, and S.-Y. Text files (six per figure) providing all the ensemble data used to construct each panel in the figure are also provided on the CBCCSP website. Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). In 2008, many of the financial and institutional barriers to climate change assessment and adaptation that had been erected over the preceding eight years by the Bush Administration were substantially reduced by the incoming Obama Administration. Fig. Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin John Day basin century climate change: +1.5 degF day temperature, +3.2 degF night temperature, -0.4 inch (2%) less precipitation. The VIC implementations make use of preprocessed soil and vegetation databases for the basin of interest. Warming of the global climate is unequivocal. Home | Columbia Basin Climate Source Detailed forecast for Upper Columbia Basin Tonight Mostly clear. Source: A set of simpler, lumped-storage reservoir operations models was used to quantify impacts in a number of smaller water supply systems. Thursday Sunny. From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP. Nestled in the sunny climate of The Dalles, Oregon just 1.5 hours east of Portland Columbia Basin Care offers around-the-clock medical care, private and semi-private rooms, fresh and nutritious . Size, however, is only one aspect of what makes the river particularly unique. Daily and monthly average streamflow for all projections listed in Table 1 and, where possible, daily and monthly bias-corrected streamflow values. To explore how much the model simulations might be improved by additional fine-scale calibration, we also recalibrated three additional smaller sites within the Pend Oreille River basin. One of the fundamental difficulties with this task was that there was not, at the time, an available database of hydrologic projections that could support such planning, and regulatory agencies such as WDOE did not have the capacity or expertise to produce these resources themselves. Fig. Depending on their needs and/or level of technical sophistication, users can tap into the study databases at a number of different levels. 1990 level modified streamflow 19281989. Simulations of floods and extreme low flows increase in intensity for most of the river sites included in the study. These extensive and ongoing research activities have also been materially supported by the long-term outreach and education programs of CIG, which have, from the outset, fully recognized the transboundary nature of the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003; Miles et al., Citation2000) and responded by promoting sustained, long-term interaction with CRB researchers and stakeholders in the United States and Canada (Hamlet, Citation2011). We should note that glaciers and deep groundwater (e.g., contributions to streamflow from large confined aquifers) are not simulated by the VIC model, and impacts in areas profoundly influenced by these hydrologic features may not be well characterized in the simulations (Wenger et al., Citation2010). Report of A.G. Crook Company to Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. 135 0 obj <>stream Lee. Thanks to Shrad Shukla, at the UW for 1/16 degree VIC model calibration over the Yakima basin. Lee. Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections. Right panel: Historical estimates of summer AET (upper right) compared with percentage changes for the same CD scenarios. The BCSD runs are transient runs from 1950 to 2098 or 1950 to 2099 (depending on the GCM). 7). A 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. 0 Previso do tempo local de hora em hora, condies climticas, precipitao, ponto de condensao, umidade, vento no Weather.com e The Weather Channel The approach used a refined version of the methods established by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), which created a hybrid historical meteorological dataset based on three primary data resources: a) monthly HCN data in the United States and the similar AHCCD datasets in Canada, b) daily data from the cooperative station network in the United States (co-op stations) and similar data from Environment Canada, and c) a monthly climatology (19712000) for precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperatures at 30 arc-second resolution produced using the PRISM (Daly, Gibson, Taylor, Johnson, & Pasteris, Citation2002; Daly, Neilson, & Phillips, Citation1994; DiLuzio, Johnson, Daly, Eischeid, & Arnold, Citation2008). Also, at about this time, successful lawsuits challenging NEPA studies because they had not addressed climate change effects began to appear (Hamlet, Citation2011). Starting from these parameter sets, an additional large-scale calibration was performed during the CBCCSP to improve model performance in reproducing historical streamflow. Right panel: Historical and projected future watershed classification (rain-dominant, transitional (mixed-rain-and-snow), snow-dominant) for 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds, based on the long-term mean of the SWE2PR for each watershed. Detailed forecast for Lower Columbia Basin of Washington Rest Of Today Partly sunny. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America. Climate Change Challenge In The Columbia River Basin: Managing Water All of the meteorological forcing data, except wind speed, are reproduced in the output files produced by the hydrologic model. Additional details on the approach and methods are available in the CBCCSP study report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a). Observations around the world demonstrate that the global atmosphere has been warming rapidly since the 1970s, with temperatures up an average of 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in that time and expected to increase between 1 and 4 degrees by the 2030s, Pytlak said. NWPCC (Northwest Power and Conservation Council). Strong bias in the simulations is commonly caused by precipitation errors (too much or too little annual precipitation), or in some cases by substantial errors in base flows because of contributions from groundwater in the actual system, which are not simulated by the VIC model (Wenger, Luce, Hamlet, Isaak, & Neville, Citation2010). Hydrologic climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin and coastal drainages. A subsequent study in the Skagit River basin (Lee and Hamlet, unpublished manuscript) has demonstrated that substantial improvements in the simulation of high flow extremes can be achieved by calibrating the routing model, but it is not yet clear whether these conclusions can be generalized to other areas of the domain. The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. Clima em Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso - weather.com The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. These parameters were chosen because they strongly affect the timing and volume of runoff production in the model simulations and are, in general, not available from observed data. The study employs a state-of-the-art, end-to-end data processing sequence that moves from raw GCM output to a set of final hydrological products that can be accessed by the user community from a web-accessible database. The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. The largest reductions in low flows occur west of the Cascade Range in the simulations. Why is a 1C increase such a big deal? (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1 Map of the selected streamflow locations supported by the CBCCSP. The objective function for the optimization process in this case was: where Q is the monthly streamflow; NSE(Q) is the NSE (monthly flow), which varies between [inf, 1] and typically between [0,1]; NSE(log(Q+1)) is the NSE (monthly flow), which varies between [inf, 1] (this metric places less emphasis on high flow errors in calculating NSE); Vol_Err(Q) is the annual volume error (in 1000 acre feet); R 2(Q)=R 2 (squared correlation coefficient between simulated and observed Q), which varies between [0,1]; Peak_Diff(Q) is the mean hydrograph peak differencethe absolute value varies for different sites; RMSE(Q) is the root mean square error, whose absolute value varies for different sites; and NumSC(Q) is the number of sign changes in the errors (this metric penalizes simulations with too much month-to-month variability in comparison with observations). The magnitude of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10 are expected to shift markedly in some basins in response to cool season warming, increasing cool season precipitation, and warmer, drier summers. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. What Does Climate Change Mean for Flooding in the Columbia River Basin Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). The interested reader is directed to the CBCCSP report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 6) for a detailed discussion of methods and results. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). The CBCCSP also included fine-scale hydrologic modelling using DHSVM (Wigmosta et al., Citation1994, Citation2002) in four pilot watersheds in the PNW. Lows in the lower 50s. Other impacts, such as changes in soil moisture dynamics are also apparent in the simulations. A calibrated 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution implementation of the VIC hydrologic model over the Columbia River basin was used to produce historical simulations and 77 future hydrologic projections associated with three different statistical downscaling methods and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s). Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. %%EOF To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. Why cattle ranching is the biggest deforestation driver in the Amazon These lands are those without any sort of status that provides government protection, such as an indigenous territory, or that have not . Figure 1 shows a map of the approximately 300 streamflow locations that were ultimately compiled from these lists for inclusion in the study (a spreadsheet listing these sites is available on the CBCCSP website (CIG, Citation2013a)). 6 Example of a summary plot for extreme high flows (Q20, Q50, Q100, left panels) and extreme low flows (7Q10, right panels) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon for two emissions scenarios (A1B, B1) and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, 2080s). Changes in PET (PET3, see Table 2) and AET (see Table 2) are shown in Fig. Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment, PN Region - usbr.gov Application Process How to Apply Sign-up for Program Updates Incidence of Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae) under different pesticide regimes in the lower Columbia basin. An understanding of the basin's transboundary nature has also informed CIG's hydrologic modelling studies, which have consistently provided complete coverage of the Canadian and US portions of the basin. Cooper, R. M. (2002). The first nine months of the dataset were used for hydrologic model spin-up, resulting in 91 water years (OctoberSeptember) of usable historical data from the hydrologic model simulations. Table 1 summarizes the 77 future meteorological forcing datasets that were prepared for the study. Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Most of the fundamental details regarding the VIC implementation used in this study are covered by Elsner et al. Thanks also to Nancy Stephan (BPA), John Fazio and Jim Ruff (NWPCC), Allan Chapman and Ben Kagasniemi (BCME), and Barry Norris (OWRD) for their contributions to the initial study design. The CBCCSP, in particular, provided access to additional scenarios and downscaling methods that provided a range of hydrologic outcomes associated with uncertainty in the climate projections, which the WACCIA assessments largely did not. Each product is provided as a gridded file (one file for each variable and calendar month) in ASCII format. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. Thanks to Sean Fleming (Environment Canada) for spearheading this contribution to Atmosphere-Ocean. How do I view content? Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. The six panels display results from the combination of three time periods (rows) and two emissions scenarios (columns) used in the HD downscaling process. These basins experience dramatic losses of snowpack and substantial changes in seasonal flow timing (Fig. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? Schnorbus, M. A., Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. Instead, these areas respond primarily to projected changes in precipitation until late in the twenty-first century, and in fact some of these areas show modest increases in SWE (about +5%) until the middle of the twenty-first century under the combined effects of warming and increasing cool season precipitation. In relatively small basins (approximately 5001500km2), of which there are a substantial number included in the study, errors in meteorological driving data are often a strong determinant of simulation errors. Instead our primary goal was to encompass the approximate range of all available scenarios while reducing costs by downscaling projections from a subset of the larger group of 20 GCMs (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Les principaux produits de ltude comprennent des donnes sommaires pour environ 300 sites fluviaux dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et des produits mensuels de Systme d'information gographique pour 21 variables hydrologiques couvrant tout le domaine ltude. Originating in British Columbia, it flows 1,214 miles to the Pacific Ocean near Astoria, Oregon. Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Wind speed data are based on interpolated NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., Citation1996) using methods described by Elsner et al. By the end of the twenty-first century, essentially the entire state is classified as rain-dominant for the A1B scenario, and the B1 scenario is only slightly different (Fig. The CBCCSP also provided a complete and well-tested data processing sequence for post-processing and summarizing the hydrologic data to provide figures and analysis efficiently. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . Since its inception in 1995, CIG has been extensively involved in climate-related research focused on the CRB and its water resources management systems. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). Extreme event statistics are calculated directly from the raw (i.e., not bias-adjusted) daily streamflows at each streamflow site, applying methods developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2007) and Mantua et al. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). The site at Corra Linn Dam on the Kootenay River is representative of changing hydrographs in many locations in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia. Although these ongoing research and outreach efforts had already laid an extensive foundation in support of pilot climate services in the PNW, starting in 20062007 it was realized that a much more comprehensive and focused effort to provide hydrologic climate change scenarios was needed if stakeholders and water professionals in the region were to take the next steps in preparing for climate change. Model calibration and validation used a split sample approach in which calibration was performed for each of the 11 primary watersheds over a 15-year period (typically water years 19751989) and model validation was performed over a separate 15-year period (typically water years 19601974). Columbia Basin Water Hub - Living Lakes Canada Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Procedure, developed at the University of Arizona (Yapo et al., A water resources simulation model developed by Labadie (, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria. Typical month of historical flooding events is shown by the colour of the dots in the scatter plot (legend inset in the upper right corner), by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. In the first five years (19952000) of operation, the research efforts of CIG were primarily directed towards the assessment of the impacts of interannual and interdecadal climate variability associated with ENSO (Battisti & Sarachik, Citation1995; Trenberth, Citation1997) and the PDO (Gershunov & Barnett, Citation1998; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace, & Francis, Citation1997). In addition to the time series gridded data, the long-term monthly mean data for each hydrologic variable, for each scenario, is provided in GridASCII format, compatible with ArcGIS. Over the last several years, the USFS and USFWS have engaged with the CIG to produce a set of initial climate change hydrologic scenarios over much of the west using a common methodology intended to support landscape-scale assessment of climate change impacts (Littell et al., Citation2011). hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% The presence of glaciers in Canada (not included in the CBCCSP simulations) may further exacerbate the discrepancies between impacts to summer flows in the United States and Canada in late summer (Werner et al., Citation2013). endstream endobj startxref Site specific data [Data]. These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. Weather for Monday, Feb. 27. Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the Northwest U.S. from 1980 - 2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. Using the VIC model, the study has projected impacts for the Great Busin and the Columbia River, Missouri River, and Colorado River basins, and assessment of impacts in California is underway at the time of writing.